India’s growth to rebound as cash shortage eases: IMF

Asian economies are expected to grow by 5.5% in 2017, slightly more than last year

GN Bureau | May 9, 2017


#IMF   #Economy   #Growth   #India   #GDP  
Representational illustration (Ashish Asthana)
Representational illustration (Ashish Asthana)

India’s growth is expected to rebound to 7.2 percent in FY 2017-18 as the cash shortages accompanying the currency exchange initiative ease, said an International Monetary Fund report that was released on Tuesday.

The Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and the Pacific estimates growth for the region to increase this year to 5.5 percent from 5.3 percent in 2016. Growth will remain strong at 5.4 percent in 2018, as the region continues to be the leader of global growth.

The report also cites the more favourable global environment with growth accelerating in many major advanced and emerging market economies—notably the US and commodity exporters—as supporting Asia’s positive outlook. Risk appetite remains strong in global financial markets despite some bouts of capital flow volatility in late 2016.

“The signs of growth in the region are encouraging so far. The policy challenge now is to strengthen and sustain this momentum,” said Changyong Rhee, director of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department.

The report said that in China, the region’s biggest and the world’s second largest economy, policy stimulus is expected to keep supporting demand. Although still robust with 2017 first quarter growth slightly stronger than expected, growth is projected to decelerate to 6.6 percent in 2017 and 6.2 in 2018.

This slowdown is predicated on a cooling housing market, partly reflecting recent tightening measures, weaker wage and consumption growth, and a stable fiscal deficit.

Japan’s growth forecast for 2017 has been raised to 1.2 percent with support from expansionary fiscal policy and the postponement of the consumption tax hike (from April 2017 to October 2019). The expansion would slow down to 0.6 percent in 2018 as the boost from the fiscal stimulus wears off.

The outlook for other Asian economies is also positive, but with some exceptions. India’s growth is expected to rebound to 7.2 percent in FY 2017-18 as the cash shortages accompanying the currency exchange initiative ease.

In most of the Southeast Asian economies, growth is expected to accelerate somewhat, supported by robust domestic demand—an important driver of growth in these countries. Meanwhile, growth in Korea is projected to remain subdued at 2.7 percent this year despite the recent pick up in exports, mainly owing to weak consumption.

It noted that the region’s outlook, however, is clouded with uncertainty. On the plus side, larger-than-expected fiscal stimulus in the US or stronger business and consumer confidence in advanced economies could provide a further boost to Asia’s exports and growth. Reforms, such as productive public investment in infrastructure in ASEAN and South Asian economies, could help prolong the positive momentum.

Asian economies are especially vulnerable to protectionism because of their trade openness and integration to global value chains. A global shift toward inward-looking policies could suppress Asia’s exports and reduce foreign direct investment to Asia. Furthermore, a bumpier-than-expected transition in China or geopolitical tensions in the region could also weaken near-term growth.

Comments

 

Other News

Tech firm, telcos prepare to enter 5G era

As the government is set to roll out the 5G spectrum auction, the network providers are also equipping 5th generation network-ready LTE technology.  According to the government, the technology would have an impact of more than $1 trillion on the Indian economy. It is also expected to transform educati

On a personal note: Rabbi Shergill

Punjabi singer, songwriter, and guitarist, Rabbi Shergill rose to fame in 2004 with his chartbuster song ‘Bullah Ki Jaana’ from his debut album ‘Rabbi’. Inspired by rock and Punjabi folk music, he uses Punjabi language to create acoustic rock-based ballads. His poetic and social

NALCO registers Rs 589 crore operating profit in Q3 of 2018-19 FY

National Aluminium Company Limited (NALCO), country’s leading manufacturer and exporter of alumina and aluminium, has posted an operating profit of Rs 589 crore in Q3 of 2018-19 FY, registering 80 percent growth over the same period of last year.   Net profit of the company

Many electronic companies still have no take-back system: Report

In 2016, 44.7 million tonnes of e-waste was generated globally which is expected to increase to 52.2 million tonnes in 2021. As of 2016, it was found out that India is the second and fifth highest generator (in Asia and globally respectively) of e-waste with 2 million tonnes. The mounting pile of e-waste h

India’s per capita power consumption likely to grow by two fold, says power minister

Union power minister RK Singh has said the per capita current power consumption of 1,200 units is expected to grow 2-3 times at par with the international consumption after every Indian gets access to electricity. Singh said the power sector is witnessing an increased demand which is further expect

Net profit of Rs 616 crore posted by SAIL in Q3 of 2018-19

SAIL has posted a profit (profit after tax) of Rs 616 crore in Q3 of 2018-19 FY. SAIL has managed to better its performance over the previous quarter as well by more than 11 percent when it stood at Rs 554 crore. The turnover for Q3 FY’19 improved by three percent over corresponding period of

Current Issue

Current Issue

Video

CM Nitish’s convoy attacked in Buxar

Opinion

Facebook    Twitter    Google Plus    Linkedin    Subscribe Newsletter

Twitter